Headline inflation is expected to return to the medium-term target of 8 ± 2%, barring any shocks.

According to the March 2026 Monetary Policy Report by the Bank of Ghana, upside risks from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, however, remain significant.

This highlights the importance of maintaining an appropriate monetary stance going forward.

Inflation stood at 3.2% in March 2026, indicating its disinflation trend for 15 consecutive months.

On a month-on month basis, headline inflation declined from 0.9% in December 2025 to 0.2% in January 2026 but picked up in February 2026 to 0.8%.

Monthly food inflation followed a downward trend, declining from 4.9% in December 2025 to 3.9% in January 2026 and further to 2.4% in February 2026.

Monthly non-food inflation, however, fell from 5.8% in December 2025 to 3.9% in January 2026, but increased slightly to 4.0% in February 2026.

At the last Monetary Policy Committee meeting in March 2026, the Committee observed a marked improvement in macroeconomic conditions, with inflation expectations broadly anchored, strengthened external buffers, and renewed confidence in the economy.

They further noted that headline inflation is expected to trend below the midpoint of the medium-term target of 8 ± 2% in the first quarter of 2026. Looking ahead, the Committee noted that upward adjustments in utility tariffs and geopolitical tensions could exert some upside risks to the inflation outlook.

Notwithstanding this, the maintenance of an appropriate monetary policy stance, strong sterilisation efforts, ongoing fiscal consolidation, and adequate reserve buffers was expected to steer inflation back to the medium-term target of 8 ± 2%.

Given these considerations, the Committee, in a majority decision, voted to lower the Monetary Policy Rate by 150 basis points to 14%.

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Inflation Expected to Return to 8 ± 2% by 2026 – BoG

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